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Earth Has No Plan of Action for 'Alien Arrival' Scenario, Astronomer Says_我的网站
A | 8月25日消息，高盛8月24日发布的《中国半导体国产化进程持续推进》报告指出，中国先进芯片自主化正迎来关键拐点。 While scientists are still to determine whether some extraterrestrial civilization may exist somewhere out there in the universe, one astronomer points out that we apparently don’t have a plan for a yet-hypothetical situation where aliens actually reach out to us.,According to the Daily Star, prominent popular scientist and Australia’s Astronomer at Large Fred Watson pointed out that scientists do have a checklist to establish whether a communication attempt by aliens is genuine, but don’t have a plan for actually establishing contact with them.,“There’s a well-established chain of boxes that need to be ticked and it would go through a lot of analysis to ensure that what you’re talking about is a real phenomenon,” he said. “However, once scientists identified what had happened, it’d then be up to the political leaders of the world to decide what to do about it, and as far as I’m aware, there’s no plan in place.”,Burnout or Homeostasis: Researchers Explain Why Aliens Are Yet to Come Knocking at Earth's Door20 June, 13:15 GMT,He did note, however, that there is a rather “gloomy outlook about there being intelligent life forms” out there in space, with the “overwhelming opinion” being that “microbial life might exist.”,“The common view is we are just a complete freak of nature – intelligent life is so rare and is such an unlikely event," Watson remarked.。随着国内晶圆代工厂快速扩产，中国7纳米及以下先进制程晶圆的供需缺口将从2025年的92%大幅收窄至2035年的34%。
B | 届时，中国先进制程晶圆月产能将达到41万片，而国内需求预计为61.9万片。 2025年至2035年间，中国先进制程晶圆供给将以46%的年复合增长率扩张，远高于同期国内需求17%的增速。报告指出，中国芯片产量自给率在2026年6月已达约70%，较2010年1月的38%提升近一倍。 但高盛也表示，若以产值衡量，自给率缺口仍远高于产量数据所呈现的程度。 中芯国际是此次产能扩张的主力。高盛模型假设，2026年至2031年间，中芯国际每年将新增3万至5万片先进节点晶圆的月产能，之后至2035年每年再增加2万片。 大规模扩产将带动新一波半导体投资。
C | 高盛预测，中国芯片资本支出在2020年代将维持两位数年度增长，2030年达820亿美元，较一年前的预测大幅上调79%。 中国晶圆制造设备市场预计2027年达530亿美元，本土设备供应商市占率将从2025年的26%提高至2028年的38%。
D | 需要指出的是，良率是制约产能有效释放的关键瓶颈。高盛假设中芯国际先进制程良率将从2026年的23%提升至2030年的50%，2035年进一步升至75%。 作为对比，台积电自2018年量产7纳米芯片以来，良率根据芯片设计和尺寸的不同已可超过90%。
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